- President Donald Trump will win re-election easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
- “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
- Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
- The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would win a narrow victory.
President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to re-election next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.
The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.
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We note that HRC did receive over 3 million more popular votes that Trump.